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      "Synopsis": "Hunting has met FY25 EBITDA guidance, with a better year-end net cash position than we had anticipated. In Subsea very credible, raised, and ambitious targets have been announced which support the wider group’s previously stated 2030 targets. With significant large contract opportunities in OCTG and Subsea on the horizon, FY26 looks like being an important year for the company.\n\nAfter a good overall Q4, Hunting has flagged expected FY25 EBITDA of U$135m, with a c.13% margin (FY24: U$126.3m, 12.0%). This is within the guidance range and above our U$130m estimate. We believe that a good close to the year from Perforating Systems and solid Subsea and OCTG performances were the trading highlights in H2.\n\nNew Subsea acquisitions (Organic Oil Recovery and Flexible Engineered Solutions) appear to be bedding in well. Hunting ended FY25 with a better-than-expected c.U$60m net cash position. Looking ahead, FY26 starts with a U$350m order book, a strong tender pipeline and management has guided to U$145m-155m expected EBITDA for the year.\n\nWe shall review our estimates and fair value of 400p/share again with the FY25 results announcement. For now, our DCF model suggests that the current share price is equivalent to c.U$189m ‘steady state’ EBITDA, which looks conservative against the company’s 2030 ambitions.",
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      "Headline": "Zeus Capital - Hunting (HTG LN) - Q3 trading update - BUY ",
      "Synopsis": "Hunting has released its Q3 trading update, reporting a steady period of further EBITDA progress, and an expectation of being at the bottom of the existing EBITDA guidance range for the full year. New contract bidding opportunities are coming up in 2026, particularly in OCTG and Subsea, and, while we adjust our numbers, we continue to forecast another year of EBITDA growth in 2026.",
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      "Headline": "Equity Development - Further EBITDA progress, FY25 guidance narrowed",
      "Synopsis": "In a Q3 update, Hunting has narrowed FY25 EBITDA guidance towards the lower end of the existing U$135m-145m range, noting that this remains slightly above our existing FY25 estimate. This broadly-based group has performed substantially in line with management expectations although EMEA re-structuring has perhaps been a modest drag. Underlying cash flow/year-end net cash looks to be slightly better than we anticipated.\n\nHunting has generated c. U$100m EBITDA with a c.13% margin in YTD trading (compared to c. U$87m and 12% in the first nine months of FY24). Themes consistent with those reported in H1 prevailed during Q3, with revenue and EBITDA margins at similar levels to Q2 we believe. Notably, profitability at North America businesses most exposed to US onshore drilling (especially Titan and OCTG) have remained robust while the Subsea Technologies and Asia Pacific divisions also performed in line with management expectations.\n\nThe group ended Q3 with a c. U$47m net cash position. The net movement (from end H1 U$75m) chiefly reflects working capital investment and share buyback activity. Year-end guidance is now U$40m-45m, after an additional U$15m share buyback outflow that we had not included (taking the total to U$30m for the year). Plenty of headroom exists under existing funding facilities, with further bolt-on acquisitions under consideration.\n\nWith unchanged estimates our 400p/share fair value, which was raised at the interim stage, is also maintained.",
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      "Headline": "Equity Development - Clear strategic momentum in evidence",
      "Synopsis": "High profile order shipments were a significant influence on H1’25 performance against the prior year – positive for OCTG, adverse for Subsea – driving overall profitability ahead y-o-y. Portfolio actions, including two acquisitions in higher margin, higher growth subsectors, will bring further benefit to future earnings. Hunting’s net cash position retains balance sheet optionality for its capital allocation policy which balances growth aspirations with shareholder returns.\n\nAt group level, Hunting delivered revenue and EBITDA (100% owned operations) growth of 7% and 13% respectively in H1’25. A small gross margin increase (+40bp to 27.8%) was supplemented by good opex control – particularly in admin expenses, generating a 70bp uplift in EBIT margin from wholly owned operations.\n\nStrong working capital inflow performance boosted free cash flow significantly compared to the prior year which was applied to acquisitions, dividends and treasury share purchases leaving period end net cash at c. U$75m (down U$25m over H1). The interim dividend was the first to be declared under the updated capital allocation policy and, accordingly, was 13% above H1’24.\n\nCompany outlook commentary points to “choppy markets” indicating some scope for variance against unchanged FY25 EBITDA guidance of U$135m-145m. Across most areas, however, order books provide reasonable coverage to the year end and we leave our projected EBITDA at U$130m, with subsequent years profitability unchanged.\n\nWe increase our fair value to 400p per share – this is derived from EV/EBITDA benchmarking plus DCF analysis. A prospective yield on the dividend of 3.0% and expectation of it growing 13% annually, plus a new share buyback programme, should all offer support for the shares in our view.",
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      "Headline": "Zeus Capital - Hunting (HTG LN) - H1 2025 results - BUY",
      "Synopsis": "Hunting has released its H1 2025 results. These reiterate the numbers reported in the July trading statement and guidance for the full year, with the business continuing to achieve growth and improve margins, generate cash, and support shareholder returns, including the new US$40m buyback. The bid pipeline remains strong, though we moderate our forecasts into the 2025 EBITDA guidance range to reflect a degree of uncertainty over the rest of 2025, in part due to the oil price environment.",
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      "Headline": "Equity Development - Profitability and strategic progress in H1",
      "Synopsis": "Hunting is hitting its marks strategically whilst also continuing to improve near term profitability. H1’25 contained operational progress, M&A execution and an updated capital allocation programme to include faster dividend growth and prospective share buybacks.\n\nMarket conditions remain mixed, but Hunting’s focus on successfully executing its order book while also addressing underperforming business areas drove progress in H1. The indicated U$68m-70m expected EBITDA for the period represents a c.16% y-o-y uplift, including a c.80bp margin improvement.\n\nA return to profitability at Perforating Systems and progress with the EMEA restructuring are welcome developments. Strategically, the acquisition of FES boosts Hunting’s Subsea offering and, along with other corporate actions, is clearly aligned with the 2030 strategy. \n\nIn addition to M&A activity, an updated capital allocation (including faster expected dividend growth at 13% pa and a proposed share buyback programme) caught the eye. This indicates confidence in the group’s cash generation credentials and a balanced approach to the application of funds.\n\nWe have not adjusted our existing 347p per share fair value at this stage but will revisit modelling following the H1’25 results announcement next month. The current share price sits on a 13% discount to this metric and a 25% discount to the end FY24 NAV.",
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      "Headline": "Zeus Capital - Hunting (HTG LN) - Forecast update - BUY",
      "Synopsis": "Hunting recently issued a trading statement, confirming guidance for 2024 and providing new guidance for 2025, alongside announcing a restructuring of its business in the UK and Europe. We have now incorporated this into our numbers and today update our forecasts, as Hunting continues to pursue new work in 2025 in its OCTG and Subsea segments and to right-size costs in Perforating Systems, Europe, and G&A.",
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      "Headline": "Equity Development - Good FY24 progress, despite variable end markets",
      "Synopsis": "Hunting has reaffirmed that FY24 EBITDA will be in line with October’s revised US$123m-126m guidance, the midpoint of which represents c.22% y-o-y progress. As previously noted, the OCTG and Subsea product groups have delivered strong performances while Hunting Titan/Perforating Systems (PS) has had to contend with depressed North American onshore activity levels.\n\nManagement has again raised year end net cash guidance (and for the third time during FY24) to US$100m-105m driven by successful shipment delivery and cash collection schedules we believe. Together with US$300m recently updated bank finance facilities, this places Hunting in a strong position to progress its 2030 strategy.\n\nCompared to our last update, we note that the group net cash position and stronger US dollar (now £/US$1.21 versus 1.31 previously) are both more favourable inputs. For now, we believe that Hunting’s current share price is discounting levels of profitability significantly lower than the group is currently achieving. \n\nWe retain our fair value / share at 397p.",
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      "Headline": "Zeus Capital - Hunting (HTG LN) - Q3 trading statement",
      "Synopsis": "Hunting has released its Q3 trading statement, reporting ongoing strong performance and good receivables collection from its OCTG, Advanced Manufacturing, and Subsea activities, but with further slowdown in Perforating Systems. This has driven a downgrade to 2024 EBITDA guidance, but an upgrade to the expected end 2024 cash position.",
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      "Headline": "Equity Development - Titan tempers upward momentum",
      "Synopsis": "Hunting’s Q3 update highlights positive developments with OCTG shipments and cash flow/funding, but Hunting Titan/Perforating Systems (PS) has not seen a trading improvement in H2 to date. Consequently, we have reduced estimates to reflect this, although we continue to expect the company to report good EBITDA progress this year and next.\n \nH1 trading patterns continue into Q3. The first OCTG shipments to KOC have completed successfully. Allowing for this, the group order book is holding up well (at U$652m versus c.U$700m in H124) with other Product Groups – PS excepted – substantially on track with expectations.\n \nOur Group EBITDA estimates are now c.7% lower for FY24 and c.12% down in the following two years. Revised FY24 guidance to U$123m-126m (from U$134m-138m) infers a strong Q4E supported by KOC shipments. Post revisions, our expectations are for EBITDA to increase by c.21% yoy this year and next.\n \nThe trading shortfall against prior guidance has not been at the expense of cash flow generation. Hunting ended Q3 with c.U$5m net cash (inferring c.U$15m net inflow in the quarter). Moreover, revised guidance is for an expected U$60m-70m year end net cash position. This is c.U$30m better than previously which we believe reflects greater clarity on the payment profile for OCTG shipments.\n \nWe are happy to retain our US$180m long term EBITDA as a DCF input. Hunting is trading in line with its peer group on current year earnings, but at a discount to our DCF modelling. Averaging these approaches gives a 397p/share fair value.",
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    {
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      "Headline": "Equity Development - Onwards and upwards",
      "Synopsis": "One year on from Hunting’s 2030 Strategy launch some good progress has been made towards these long-term targets in mixed market conditions. H124 EBITDA came in at U$60.3m (+c.23% y-o-y), in line with pre-close commentary.\nSuccessful order execution in International and Subsea markets more than offset largely weaker North American oil and gas demand. An elevated order book position, re-affirmed EBITDA and year-end net cash guidance (both raised at the end of H1), together with a 10% interim DPS uplift, all project a confident outlook.\n \nStrong H124 EBITDA increases from Subsea, OCTG and Advanced Manufacturing operations were partly offset by a lower Perforating Systems’ contribution, but good y-o-y and sequential progress was achieved by the Group overall, sustaining recent trends.\n \nHunting’s c. U$700m order book position at the end of June supports our unchanged core profit estimates, albeit on slightly lower FY24 revenues factoring in current Perforating Systems’ run rates. We now include JV/Associates in EBITDA, consistent with the revised company presentation, and have trimmed the current year contribution here largely to reflect the India JV start-up position.\n \nThe c.40% YTD share price uplift was effectively attained in May - including a boost from OCTG orders at that time – and has largely traded in the 400p-460p range subsequently. Having significantly outperformed its peer group, valuation metrics are now more aligned with these peers on an FY25 P/E basis but remain on a c.20% EV/EBITDA discount.\n \nSuccessful delivery of the KOC OCTG orders over the next nine months is an important near-term focus. Ongoing material order success and improving visibility at higher levels of profitability in the medium term and beyond will be the key drivers of future share price performance and we leave our existing fair value of 436p / share unchanged for now.",
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      "Headline": "Equity Development - Onwards and upwards",
      "Synopsis": "One year on from Hunting’s 2030 Strategy launch some good progress has been made towards these long-term targets in mixed market conditions. H124 EBITDA came in at U$60.3m (+c.23% y-o-y), in line with pre-close commentary.\n\nSuccessful order execution in International and Subsea markets more than offset largely weaker North American oil and gas demand. An elevated order book position, re-affirmed EBITDA and year-end net cash guidance (both raised at the end of H1), together with a 10% interim DPS uplift, all project a confident outlook.\n\nStrong H124 EBITDA increases from Subsea, OCTG and Advanced Manufacturing operations were partly offset by a lower Perforating Systems’ contribution, but good y-o-y and sequential progress was achieved by the Group overall, sustaining recent trends.\n\nHunting’s c. U$700m order book position at the end of June supports our unchanged core profit estimates, albeit on slightly lower FY24 revenues factoring in current Perforating Systems’ run rates. We now include JV/Associates in EBITDA, consistent with the revised company presentation, and have trimmed the current year contribution here largely to reflect the India JV start-up position.\n\nHunting’s c.40% YTD share price uplift was effectively attained in May - including a boost from OCTG orders at that time – and has largely traded in the 400p-460p range subsequently. Having significantly outperformed its peer group, valuation metrics are now more aligned with these peers on an FY25 P/E basis but remain on a c.20% EV/EBITDA discount.\n\nSuccessful delivery of the KOC OCTG orders over the next nine months is an important near-term focus. Ongoing material order success and improving visibility at higher levels of profitability in the medium term and beyond will be the key drivers of future share price performance and we leave our existing fair value of 436p / share unchanged for now.",
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      "Headline": "Equity Development - H1 ahead and OCTG orders underpin more progress",
      "Synopsis": "International and Subsea markets continue to drive Hunting forward. A pre-close update indicated H124 EBITDA of c.US$60m (up US$10m+ year-on-year) plus a c.$700m period end group order book (up c.US$135m since December). There have been headwinds in certain other markets, but overall group momentum has again led to slightly firmer guidance for the current year together with an expectation of good progress to follow in FY25. The company was modestly geared at the period end.\n \nA c. 200bp increase in EBITDA margin and group revenue c. 3% higher y-o-y resulted in a strong overall increase in H124 profitability. Subsea had a notably stronger H1 trading period supported by shipments of titanium stress joints for offshore Guyana projects; OCTG continued to trade well and it secured significant new orders in the first half. Weaker onshore North American drilling activity did impact Perforating Systems’ performance and three site consolidation actions are being taken. Hunting ended H1 in a modest net debt position of c. US$10m (company basis) and has now guided to a more significant expected net cash balance between US$30m-40m by the year end.\n \nAt the end of H1, the group order book position increased to c. US$700m, boosted by significant new OCTG work. This has settled back slightly from an early June peak following the second OCTG announcement but still represented a marked uplift compared to the beginning of the year. The H124 performance together with forward visibility in several areas into H125, has informed firmer guidance for current year EBITDA (to a mid-point of US$136m, up US$4m) and an expected outcome range for FY25 (mid-point c. US$167m).\n \nOn conventional metrics the company is effectively trading on value (rather than growth) level multiples in FY25 and FY26. Our updated DCF and company fair value at 436p/share is unchanged and modestly above the current share price.",
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      "Headline": "Zeus Capital - Hunting (HTG LN) - Further large OCTG award",
      "Synopsis": "Hunting has announced a further large OCTG award – an US$86m order from Kuwait Oil Company. This comes after the US$145m OCTG award already received from Kuwait Oil Company in mid-May and, alongside some additional Subsea and Advanced Manufacturing wins, takes total order book to c.US$751m (from c.US$665m in mid-May). ",
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      "Headline": "Zeus Capital - Hunting (HTG LN) - Significant new contract win",
      "Synopsis": "Hunting has announced a significant new US$145m OCTG contract win in the Middle East, boosting order book to record levels and seeing guidance now expected to be towards the top of the existing range.",
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      "Headline": "Equity Development - Record order boosts momentum and firms guidance",
      "Synopsis": "Hunting has received a record US$145m OCTG order with shipments to the Kuwait Oil Company expected to start toward the end of 2024. As a result, following an in-line Q1 update, EBITDA guidance has now firmed towards the upper end of the company’s existing US$125m-135m range. We have raised our current year EBITDA estimate to US$131m (+c.7%) and by c.14% for FY25 due to this new business win.\n \nThis contract follows significant OCTG (Oil Country Tubular Goods) orders in H2'22 (US$80m+ offshore China for CNOOC) and H223 (US$91m Rajasthan for Cairn Oil & Gas, Vedanta Ltd), and underscores Hunting’s strong position and momentum in international markets. \n \nFollowing our upgrades, Hunting is currently trading on discounts of c.22% and c.35% on conventional P/E and EV/EBITDA metrics versus its peer group over our estimate horizon. Applying the peer group average P/E to our unchanged FY26 earnings generates a share price in line with our DCF-derived valuation (slightly higher at 434p, using US$180m as a long-term sustainable EBITDA level) leaving our existing 436p per share fair value unchanged at this stage.",
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      "Headline": "Equity Development - On track to deliver further progress in FY24",
      "Synopsis": "Commentary and financial metrics in Hunting’s AGM/Q1 update confirm that the company has progressed in line with its FY24 targets thus far in year-to-date trading. Q124 EBITDA was well ahead year-on-year. This represents a good step towards the flagged US$125m-135m range for the year, with ongoing momentum in the strongest market segments.\n\nGroup revenue has continued to grow well, being up c.16% year-on-year in Q1 and c.7% ahead compared to Q423, a strong quarterly close to FY23. Shipments against previously disclosed large contracts in the OCTG and Subsea product groups and broad business development in Advanced Manufacturing have been the primary drivers in generally firm underlying markets.\n\nWhile the group order book has nudged c. US$21m lower than the year end position as larger orders are worked through, US$544m on hand at the end of March still represents a strong position in a historic context. We are also aligned with management expectations for inventory positions unwinding over the remainder of the year.\n\nUpdating our P/E and DCF methodology for market movements (including £/US$1.25) now yields a blended fair value for Hunting of 436p / share: up from 407p and over 20% above the current share price.",
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      "Headline": "Zeus Capital - Hunting (HTG LN) - Full year 2023 results",
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      "Headline": "Equity Development - Connecting market position and clear ambition",
      "Synopsis": "With positive trading momentum and order book development continuing, Hunting has outlined a clear growth strategy for the remainder of this decade. This is predicated upon further progress in traditional markets amplified by deeper penetration of newer adjacent ones and other non-oil & gas industries. In share price terms, only partial credit has been given for an improving financial performance. Yet, at current levels it is effectively discounting no growth beyond a return to pre-Covid levels of profitability - in stark contrast with management’s ambition.\n\nManagement has outlined a clear strategy to grow significantly and, in the process, diversify to derive c. 25% of group revenues from non-oil and gas sectors – including Energy Transition sub-sectors - by 2030. Explicit short, medium- and long-term targets (including revenue CAGRs of c. 16% to FY25 and c. 13% organic to FY30, EBITDA margin improvements and M&A potential also) are founded on strong existing market positions, similarities with carbon capture and geothermal sector requirements and demonstrated capabilities in certain other non-oil & gas sectors already.\n\nWe initiate coverage with a fair value of 421p per share (c.42% above current levels). Earnings growth is the primary attraction for investors currently in our opinion, although dividend growth prospects are also good. Lastly, we note that Hunting’s share price is currently sitting on a c. 30% discount to its H123 NAV per share.",
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      "Headline": "Zeus Capital - Hunting (HTG) - Trading update",
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      "Headline": "Zeus Capital - Hunting (HTG LN) - New contract and guidance update",
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